Modeling inefficient institutions

the long version

A major cause of supply chain deficiencies is the bullwhip effect which can be substantial even over a single echelon. This effect refers to the tendency of the variance of the replenishment orders to increase as it moves up a supply chain. Supply chain managers experience this variance amplification in both inventory levels and replenishment orders. As a result, companies face shortages or bloated inventories, run-away transportation and warehousing costs and major production adjustment costs. In this article we analyze a major cause of the bullwhip effect and suggest a remedy. We focus on a smoothing replenishment rule that is able to reduce the bullwhip effect across a single echelon. In general, dampening variability in orders may have a negative impact on customer service due to inventory variance increases. We therefore quantify the variance of the net stock and compute the required safety stock as a function of the smoothing required. Our analysis shows that bullwhip can be satisfactorily managed without unduly increasing stock levels to maintain target fill rates. Keywords: Bullwhip effect, Supply chain management, Inventory management, Variance reduction.