Plural society in peril

the long version

This study examines the ways in which large-scale migration and rapid economic change have fueled separatism and ethnic conflict in Papua. It presents an analysis of recent census data showing that three quarters of a million migrants from other parts of Indonesia have resettled in the territory since 1970 either through official transmigration programs or as unsponsored economic migrants. Based on this analysis, the study illustrates how rapid modernization and demographic change have resulted in the displacement and dislocation of Papua’s indigenous population, provoking Papuan resentment and demands for independence. But rapid social change has not only spurred ethnonationalist mobilization; it has also generated ethnic and tribal tensions within Papua. Growing competition for land and resources between settlers and Papuans has given rise to persistent social conflict in Papua. The threat now looms that this social conflict could trigger a larger outbreak of communal and ethnic violence as in neighboring areas. So far Papua has proved relatively resistant to efforts to foment widespread conflict. It remains unclear, however, whether the government can address the deep-seated sense of Papuan resentment leading to alienation and conflict. It could do so by reversing many of its divisive policies and redoubling its efforts to bring services to remote indigenous communities. In the absence of such initiatives, continuing inflows of migrants into the province may well overwhelm the mechanisms for social management that have so far kept conflict from spiraling out of control. This is the thirteenth publication in Policy Studies, a peer-reviewed East-West Center Washington series that presents scholarly analysis of key contemporary domestic and international political, economic, and strategic issues affecting Asia in a policy relevant manner.