Development of regional extreme model atmospheres for aerothermodynamic calculations (I)

the long version

A group of stations in the North American Arctic region have been analyzed for statistical determination of temperatures at mandatory pressure levels pj. For each station the temperature at a key level (called the forcing-level temperature) peculiar to the station has been forced in at the first step, and retained at each subsequent step in the development of the stepwise regression equations giving temperature at the mandatory levels. In general, eight-step prediction equations in terms of other temperatures in the vertical were found to give specification of T(pj), with percentage explained variance of close to 0.99. As a result of this definitive property, the best-estimate of the regional atmosphere which is conditionally dependent upon the existence of an extreme 1% probability of the forcing-level temperature is obtained with a high degree of confidence. (Author)