Overconfidence and war

the long version

"Opponents rarely go to war without thinking they can win - and clearly, one side must be wrong. This conundrum lies at the heart of the so-called War Puzzle: rational states should agree on their differences in power and thus not fight. But as Dominic Johnson argues in Overconfidence and War, states are no more rational than people, who are susceptible to exaggerated ideas of their own virtue, of their ability to control events, and of the future. By looking at this bias - called "positive illusions" - as it figures in evolutionary biology, psychology, and the politics of international conflict, this book offers insights into why states wage war."--BOOK JACKET.